Whenever you have a trading day when a critical Fed decision comes out later in the afternoon, you typically see a muted trading session leading up to that release.
After all, traders typically aren’t willing to commit a large amount of new capital in front of an announcement that could send the major market averages zooming in either direction.
When it comes to Fed reactions, the market’s direction is usually a coin-flip scenario that hinges upon the interpretation of one seemingly irrelevant word in the statement, such as “but” or “however.”
I know, it seems pretty ridiculous…
Leading up to this announcement, Federal Reserve officials have already signaled that they intend to hold interest rates steady at their current 1.5% to 2% range.
But given the strong jobs report last week, economists will most certainly wonder about hints of future policy from the statement, which means overanalyzing every single “and” and “but” in the statement.
For most traders, an environment like this can be tricky. However, in The War Room, we have proven strategies that work even within these coin-flip scenarios.
I’ll profile one of these strategies for you today…
It started earlier this week when we began the discussion on Conn’s (Nasdaq: CONN).
Now, I admit, this furniture, mattress and electronics retailer isn’t the first name that comes to mind when you think about pre-Fed trading.
It’s a company that operates 133 retail locations, primarily in southern states like Alabama, Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas.
However, what we did know is this…
Conn’s was set to report earnings Tuesday morning, and it carried just over a 30% short interest rate – which made it prone to a large earnings move.
Conn’s could’ve reported a great earnings number and soared or a poor earnings number and tanked – it didn’t matter. We were able to structure an options trade that would make money no matter which way the stock moved. As long as the earnings reaction was large enough, we’d stand to get paid.
Before Conn’s reported earnings, members quietly entered a call and put combo for a total entry price of $2.35. And when earnings came out, Conn’s got crushed.
The company reported Q3 same-store sales of negative 8.4%, which pushed the stock down 26% in pre-market trading. Here’s what it looked like – ouch!
In response to this move, the call and put combo members entered for $2.35 was sold for around $4.60. The beauty of this strategy is that members were covered on both sides – even as the major market averages treaded water going into the Fed decision.
Action Plan: In times of market indecision, playing a two-sided earnings strangle makes a ton of sense. It’s an options strategy that not many traders utilize, and it gives you the ability to make money no matter which direction a stock trades. In fact, that’s exactly why members just entered a new trade like this on a technology communication and equipment company.
[adzerk-get-ad zone="245143" size="4"]About Bryan Bottarelli
Whether it was selling the Star Wars figures he collected as a little boy for 50 times their value or using the $125 he made cutting grass to buy a Michael Jordan rookie card that he later sold for $1,500, it was always clear that Bryan Bottarelli was a born trader – possessing the unique ability to identify opportunities and leverage his investments.
Graduating with a business degree from the highly rated Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Bryan got his first job out of college trading stock options on the floor of the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE). There, he was mentored by one of the country’s top floor traders during the heart of the technology boom from 1999 to 2000 – trading in the crowded and lively Apple computer pit. Executing his trades in real time, Bryan learned to identify and implement some of his most powerful trading secrets… secrets that rarely find their way outside the CBOE to be used by individual traders.
Recognizing the true value of these methods, Bryan tapped into his entrepreneurial spirit and took a risk. He walked off the CBOE floor and launched his own independent trading research service called Bottarelli Research. From February 2006 to December 2018, Bryan gave his precise trading instructions to a small, elite group – most of whom have been followers ever since.
As a “play tactician,” Bryan uses his hands-on knowledge of floor trading to shape opportunities and chart formations into elegant, powerful and profitable recommendations. And by using the same hedging techniques taught by professional floor traders, Bryan is able to deliver his readers remarkable gain opportunities while strictly limiting their total risk.
Along the way, Bryan has developed a cumulative track record that could impress even the most successful hedge fund manager.
He now spends his days moderating one of the most elite trading research forums ever created: The War Room.
